Since our last Market Memo, a lot of information and news has come out changing the short-term paradigm within the marketplace and economic environment. We here at Vantage believes that we are still working through the effects of the pandemic as well as its economic response. From recent record-high inflation, war overseas, energy shortages, and inverted yield curve, low unemployment, negative GDP, and a hawkish Fed; we live in a unique and new market that is still finding its place.
For those who are reading this article that have recently received a pay increase, are taking on newer responsibilities in their workplace, or are entering an entirely new work environment, take a moment to celebrate as your hard work has paid off! There are a few things to be mindful of when it comes to making your next career transition, as the impact of these changes can happen a lot slower than most other life events.
Economic data released last week by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed the U.S. economy shrank by an .90% annualized rate in the second quarter. This follows the 1.6% decline in the first quarter. While two back-to-back negative reports can be commonly viewed as a recession, it does raise the question what exactly is a recession? I expect this topic to be front and center as additional economic data covering employment, consumption and industrial activity will be heavily scrutinized. GDP reports are subject to revision by the BEA in the following months.